Community Discussions
Explore the latest discussions and community conversations related to this domain.
I’m still learning how to bet on baseball. How’s this? (Drafters)
Main Post: I’m still learning how to bet on baseball. How’s this? (Drafters)
Top Comment: This is called gambling bro, could be good or bad
What’s the best MLB betting strat?
Main Post: What’s the best MLB betting strat?
Top Comment: To stop betting on MLB.
Advice for MLB Betting (target audience - beginner)
Main Post:
Some Quick Thoughts - For MLB Betting in 2025
These thoughts are my own. Sharper minds may refute these ideas. Degener minds may scoff at them. I am here to help give advice that finds a middle ground. The target audience for this post is someone who has bet frivolously in the past and wants to make an effort to improve their habits.
In the next two weeks, you will see someone hit a 4-leg Home Run parlay. They will tout a paid service. Be skeptical. If you're tempted to join, ask them to provide their current ROI on the 2025 season. If they can't, don't buy. If they ask what an ROI is, block them.
Speaking of Home Runs - it's cold. It's windy. Balls do not fly as well in March/April as they do in June/July. Feel free to pick and choose spots you like, but temper your expectations at the start of the year.
Baseball is *more or less* a solved game. I believe it's the easiest to "handicap". There is plenty of free or cheap data. There are a variety of markets. Large sample size. It's a great time to pick a market (Home Runs, Run First Inning, Ks, F5, etc) and study that market. Find data, watch games, track performance. There's no shame in focusing on one specific market and attempting to perfect it.
How much should I bet? There's more nuance here than I want to include. This is VERY basic advice. Bet size should always reflect your edge, but that's another conversation. If you are someone who is new to betting and wanting to take steps to doing things "right", I would suggest getting in the habit of thinking about a bankroll with units...
Again, this is not the optimized way to think about this. Sharp bettors will likely disagree with the following points - but I argue this way is better than no way.
There are 187 days in the MLB season. How much are you comfortable spending a day on "entertainment"? Let's say $20. 187x$20 is $3740. There's your bankroll.
"Whoa, I don't really want to lose $3740 over the course of 7 months..." Well, I doubt you lose every bet you place, but I totally understand your point. Maybe $20 a day is too much? Try $15. (Now our bankroll is $2805)
Great, now think about a standard unit being 1% of your bankroll. Your unit is $28. Most bets in the -120 to +120 range are going to be placed at $28. Think there's value in Ben Rice to HR at +680? Maybe that's a .25u play. "NO, LIKE, I FEEL REALLY GOOD ABOUT BEN RICE!" Okay, bet .5 units... a cut and dry way to think about it is - if its more likely to win (bigger minus odds) bet more units. If it's less likely to win (bigger plus odds) bet fractional units. (again your edge plays into this but that's for later.)
Track every bet your place SOMEHOW. A Google Sheet. A notebook. IDC! Just track it. Ideally you'll sort by markets as well - Maybe you are finding it easier to handicap YRFI and having more success there. Any data you can include will help you improve as a bettor.
As you bet, your bankroll grows and shrinks. Adjust your units accordingly. You can do this every day, or once a week. Let's say after week one you're down $300. Your bankroll is now $2505 and your unit is now $25. Week 2 you crush and make $700 ($3205 bankroll). Now your unit is $32.
While this is math, it's also an art. The important part, in my opinion, is that you have a system. You are aware of your bankroll and are tracking every play. +EV bets, calculating an edge, Kelly wagering - all that can be added in due time. When in doubt, bet less. Your mental and financial health should be top priority. It's okay to have fun, but there's a way to have fun while being intentional.
Again, all of this is nuanced and I realize the way I described it not optimized for maximum returns. But I argue there's a lot of bettors who will never reach that point without first getting accustomed to these principles. My goal is to help degens gradually improve the way they approach betting.
Top Comment: take 2 total bases instead of home run if u believe in game under, take 1st 5 under NRFI > Under > pitcher side if total looks too low, find an alt to bet lower!
Can someone tell me that MLB is just a harder sport to bet on and I’m not just crazy?
Main Post:
I’m so glad NFL is back. When i had NFL and NBA I was making more money than I’ve ever seen sports betting and more consistent I ran up my account to 500+ dollars several times. When I didn’t have either nfl or nba and could just bet on fucking MLB I haven’t had my account go over like 150 dollars once.... This fucking sport is miserable for me to bet on.
Good teams sell hard ever single day and they do it OFTEN. There aren’t as many player props to bet on that actually seem like a “good” bet. There’s like no consistency in betting this fucking sport. Fuck MLB man. Good riddance. I think the biggest thing is that for player props I really only feel good about betting on K’s and hits. But hits fucking suck because good hitters can get 5 at bats and not get a single hit like what the actual fuck? And then they have the nerve to set the odds at -230?? And hockey I can’t wait for hockey when I have either hockey, NBA or NFL I actual make money sports betting.
Top Comment: I think the term "any given sunday" fits baseball more than football.
I FINALLY figured out the BEST & most CONSISTENT way to bet MLB
Main Post:
I’ve been betting live overs and 9/10 it hits , I look at whatever game where a team takes a few run lead early in the game and also the amount of hits a team has , For example with this game the Giants were up 4-0 in the first inning and had 4 hits , I took over 11.5 I’ve did this a few days in a row and it’s been working if you’re patient enough it’ll work for you but remember what to look for
- A few run lead
- The amount of hits a team has
It’s especially better if the home team is down in the game because the bottom of the 9th gives them that extra inning to score at least
Fuck pregame bets with MLB it’s too unpredictable
Top Comment: This is so smart! I can't believe the books didn't think of this. 90% win rate? Crazy how Vegas just hands out free money. The last time that happened, a first inning with four plus runs, the Dodgers and A's finished the first tied 2-2 (on Sunday). And the game ended 3-2. I think you're making a mountain out of a single game sample.
Finished betting on baseball, dumb a$$ sport to bet on.
Main Post:
I swear this has to be the worst sport to bet on bro. I am finished and will just wait for football and basketball to start, even hockey I have won on, but baseball is truly awful to bet on. The players are so erratic and the pitchers are some of the worse. I've noticed there are a whole lot of garbage pitchers in baseball, guys who look like they are just filling out the numbers for the pitching staff. Don't know why they call them relief pitchers, when many only make it worse.
For example, you can have a no HR bet going good and then some clown scrub pitcher comes into the game for the starter and serves up a meatbals with 2 outs to a .179 hitter with 2 HR's on the season in a blowout game, not to mention always giving up more runs that ruins your spread, it never fails.
Just a really annoying sport to bet on. I'm done wasting money on it, can't wait for football and basketball. Will let the Olympics basketball hold me over until those regular seasons return. Just my rant after another suck night of MLB. Garbage league to bet on.
Top Comment: See you again in a week
Why do I suck at betting on baseball?
Main Post:
Is anybody good at this shit? This is my third year betting on it and I still cant figure it out. And don’t comment with “ohh it’s all about pitching” cuz that’s complete bullshit
Top Comment: Baseball is too random as a game, with a lot of luck and variables involved. That’s why the season is so long, you need a lot of games for things to average out and establish patterns. An incredibly good team will still manage to lose somewhere between 50-60 games a season, many of those games against terrible teams and no one will be surprised compared to, say, the KC Chiefs losing to the Carolina Panthers. Keeping up with the game is much harder and time-consuming than other sports. There’re tons of games everyday, all of which take a long time, it takes serious effort to be genuinely informed on what’s going on. With the NFL, I can watch three games on Sunday plus TNF and MNF, and watch a few extended highlights through the week easily; with MLB, the slate of games will finish late at night and less than 24 hours later you will have another 12-15 games starting, all at similar times - it’s easy to get lost during the season.
MLB betting newbie
Main Post:
So I've been betting for about a year and a half on NFL/College FB/College BBall (up 25 units this year!) and I'm becoming more and more degenerate so I'm turning to MLB for the daily options. I was shocked to find the betting format is mostly payout based by moving the odds vs moving the spread like football/basketball. So I'm having to relearn everything and what numbers look good from a handicap standpoint.
What are some general things you guys look for to handicap? I've got my ATS, O/U trends sites I use. But I never really paid attention to odds betting football/basketball bc juice is just assumed. A win is a win, now I'm having to make sure it's worth it to even place the bet. Help!
Top Comment: Look through the mlb sub. If you see more than 3-4 people on the same bet. Do the opposite. That’s it. That’s all
MLB betting strategy that works 99% of the time
Main Post:
So this is the basics of it. It’s basically a martingale system where the first step is betting on over 0.5 runs in the first inning of a game. If it doesn’t hit, double down on the second inning. Then the 3rd inning, etc. there has to be a run scored. You can usually get these odds between -110 to -150. The only time this wouldn’t work is if a game is suspended due to weather delays. (**or if it’s 0-0 after 9 innings. I don’t have to tell you how rare that is.) Easy way to avoid that is to check weather or pick a dome team. I would recommend starting out to win $5-$10 until you get a good feel for it. You will need a bigger bankroll if you want to win more than that. For more methods of mine similar to this send me a PM.
Live betting is the only way to do this after the initial yes run scored in first inning bet.
You could also just skip a games first few innings and live bet. Just find a game that’s in progress and still 0-0
Top Comment: You know a game can go scoreless through 9 innings right or longer?